EPHA Conference Systems, 34th EPHA Annual Conference

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Modeling the Climate Variability and Change in Southern Ethiopia
Alefu Chinasho Gujube

Last modified: 2023-02-10

Abstract


The empirical investigations of climate variability and change help to reduce climate-related damage through proactive measures. So, this study aimed to analyze the past (1990-2019) and future (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) rainfall and temperature variability and change in southern Ethiopia. Rainfall and temperature (maximum and minimum) datasets of regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used in modeling the future climate.  The results indicated that the past rainfall showed low variability except for the Bega. It also showed a non-significantly (P>0.05) increasing trend except for the Belg season. Similarly, a low variability with a non-significantly increasing trend of maximum temperature (Tmax) and a significantly increasing trend of minimum temperature (Tmin) was noted. The future annual rainfall is projected to decrease in all projection periods and RCPs except for the 2070s, from the baseline period (1990-2019). Belg and Kiremt season rainfall are projected to decrease in all projection periods and RCPs except for the 2070s of Belg, from the baseline. However, the Bega season rainfall is projected to increase in all projection periods and RCPs. Kiremt season rainfall is projected to significantly decrease (p<0.01) by 2050s under both RCPs. The future Tmax and Tmin are projected to increase in all periods and RCPs and significantly increase in the majority of cases. Thus, it can be concluded that southern Ethiopia has been under irreversibly changing climate though the area experienced low climate variability. The declining rainfall of Belg and Kiremt seasons and the raising temperature needs further studies on their effects on agricultural productivity to devise proactive measures.